Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Guilherme Costa
Jared Chaffee
90%
10%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guilherme Costa
Jared Chaffee
43
Sig strikes landed
43
100
Sig strikes attempted
104
58
Total strikes landed
54
3.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
200s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Guilherme Costa
"The Prodigy"
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Jared Chaffee
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
31