Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luke Flores
Gilbert Jimenez
91%
9%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Luke Flores
Gilbert Jimenez
47
Sig strikes landed
39
109
Sig strikes attempted
104
67
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Luke Flores
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Gilbert Jimenez
0-0
Career record