Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Gormley
Dan Charles
83%
17%
Why
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gormley: 42 sig / 2 TD ·
Charles: 50 sig / 0 TD
Chase Gormley
Dan Charles
43
Sig strikes landed
30
100
Sig strikes attempted
87
59
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chase Gormley
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
L1
Dan Charles
"The Man"
10-7-1
Career record
Height
74"
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
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