Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Emmanuel Sanchez
Henry Corrales
84%
16%
Why
15-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-4
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Sanchez: 84 sig / 1 TD ·
Corrales: 66 sig / 0 TD
Emmanuel Sanchez
Henry Corrales
60
Sig strikes landed
57
152
Sig strikes attempted
141
85
Total strikes landed
74
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Emmanuel Sanchez
"El Matador"
15-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Bellator 139: Kongo vs. Volkov
—
W
Bellator 135: Warren vs. Galvao
—
Blue corner
L1
Henry Corrales
13-4
Career record
Height
69"
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—