Prelims2
Lightweight
Cesar Arzamendia vs Marco Polo Reyes
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
·Arena Monterrey
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cesar Arzamendia
Marco Polo Reyes
73%
27%
Why
25
Age
Δ 6y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Arzamendia: 16 sig / 3 TD ·
Reyes: 10 sig / 0 TD
Cesar Arzamendia
Marco Polo Reyes
36
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
73
49
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cesar Arzamendia
"Goku"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Marco Polo Reyes
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31