Back to UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Prelims2 Lightweight

Valmir Lazaro vs Michel Prazeres

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum ·Arena Monterrey
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Valmir Lazaro
Michel Prazeres
33% 67%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
16-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
26-5
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lazaro: 41 sig / 0 TD · Prazeres: 20 sig / 1 TD
Valmir Lazaro
Michel Prazeres
41
Sig strikes landed
49
119
Sig strikes attempted
105
65
Total strikes landed
71
0.3
Takedowns landed
3.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
10.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
63s
Control time
268s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Valmir Lazaro

"Bidu"
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
L1

Michel Prazeres

"Tractor"
26-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
L UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—