Back to UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Main Welterweight

Erick Montano vs Enrique Marin

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum ·Arena Monterrey
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Erick Montano
Enrique Marin
71% 29%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Montano: 49 sig / 2 TD · Marin: 27 sig / 1 TD
Erick Montano
Enrique Marin
45
Sig strikes landed
47
105
Sig strikes attempted
106
58
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Erick Montano

"Perry"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Enrique Marin

"Wasabi"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
29