Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Henry Cejudo
63%
37%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
24-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-6
W3
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Formiga: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Cejudo: 43 sig / 2 TD
Jussier Formiga
Henry Cejudo
29
Sig strikes landed
32
80
Sig strikes attempted
76
46
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jussier Formiga
24-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W3
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
17-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—