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Prelims1 Welterweight

Hector Urbina vs Bartosz Fabinski

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum ·Arena Monterrey
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Hector Urbina
Bartosz Fabinski
42% 58%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
28
Age
Δ 1y
30
18-10-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
16-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Urbina: 10 sig / 0 TD · Fabinski: 25 sig / 6 TD
Hector Urbina
Bartosz Fabinski
16
Sig strikes landed
15
24
Sig strikes attempted
19
31
Total strikes landed
33
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
54%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Hector Urbina

"El Toro"
18-10-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
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Blue corner
W1

Bartosz Fabinski

"The Butcher"
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
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