Prelims1
Bantamweight
Erik Perez vs Taylor Lapilus
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
·Arena Monterrey
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Erik Perez
Taylor Lapilus
34%
66%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
17-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
22-4
L1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Perez: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Lapilus: 20 sig / 0 TD
Erik Perez
Taylor Lapilus
30
Sig strikes landed
44
83
Sig strikes attempted
91
42
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
121s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Erik Perez
"Goyito"
17-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
Blue corner
W2
Taylor Lapilus
"Double Impact"
22-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—