Prelims2
Lightweight
Francisco Trevino vs Sage Northcutt
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Francisco Trevino
Sage Northcutt
35%
65%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 14y
20
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Trevino: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Northcutt: 21 sig / 1 TD
Francisco Trevino
Sage Northcutt
40
Sig strikes landed
40
78
Sig strikes attempted
94
57
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
166s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francisco Trevino
"Sitkayan"
13-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
Blue corner
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20