Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Sergio Pettis
26%
74%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
34
Age
Δ 12y
22
17-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-6
L2
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cariaso: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Pettis: 37 sig / 3 TD
Chris Cariaso
Sergio Pettis
60
Sig strikes landed
59
125
Sig strikes attempted
150
68
Total strikes landed
82
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
L1
Sergio Pettis
18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—