Prelims1
Lightweight
Adriano Martins vs Islam Makhachev
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adriano Martins
Islam Makhachev
26%
74%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 9y
24
29-9
Career record
Δ 20 pp
29-1
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Martins: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Makhachev: 4 sig / 0 TD
Adriano Martins
Islam Makhachev
15
Sig strikes landed
27
44
Sig strikes attempted
55
29
Total strikes landed
42
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
51s
Control time
314s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Adriano Martins
29-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—