Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alan Jouban
Albert Tumenov
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
34
Age
Δ 10y
24
18-7
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-4
W2
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jouban: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Tumenov: 19 sig / 0 TD
Alan Jouban
Albert Tumenov
39
Sig strikes landed
38
90
Sig strikes attempted
86
42
Total strikes landed
42
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
34s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
18-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
W3
Albert Tumenov
"Einstein"
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—