Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Viktor Pesta
70%
30%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
29-14
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-4
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lewis: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Pesta: 8 sig / 5 TD
Derrick Lewis
Viktor Pesta
27
Sig strikes landed
19
43
Sig strikes attempted
29
48
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
156s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W1
Viktor Pesta
11-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—