Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Rashad Evans
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
24-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
20-8-1
W4
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bader: 52 sig / 1 TD ·
Evans: 25 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Rashad Evans
36
Sig strikes landed
27
84
Sig strikes attempted
78
57
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.7
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
172s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
Blue corner
W2
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
20-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—