🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Daniel Cormier vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
Alexander Gustafsson
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
36
Age
Δ 8y
29
23-3
Career record
Δ 22 pp
18-9
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Cormier: 140 sig / 1 TD ·
Gustafsson: 120 sig / 1 TD
Daniel Cormier
Alexander Gustafsson
62
Sig strikes landed
55
107
Sig strikes attempted
127
98
Total strikes landed
67
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
248s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
L
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18-9
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—