Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Shawn Jordan
Ruslan Magomedov
50%
50%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
20-8
Career record
Δ 22 pp
15-1
W3
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jordan: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Magomedov: 71 sig / 0 TD
Shawn Jordan
Ruslan Magomedov
29
Sig strikes landed
41
78
Sig strikes attempted
89
38
Total strikes landed
54
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Shawn Jordan
"The Savage"
20-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ruslan Magomedov
"Leopard"
15-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—