Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Jessica Andrade vs Raquel Pennington
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Andrade
Raquel Pennington
72%
28%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
27-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-11
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Andrade: 41 sig / 4 TD ·
Pennington: 41 sig / 2 TD
Jessica Andrade
Raquel Pennington
62
Sig strikes landed
54
120
Sig strikes attempted
124
91
Total strikes landed
75
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
245s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jessica Andrade
"Bate Estaca"
27-15
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
Blue corner
L1
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—