Prelims1
Bantamweight
Francisco Rivera vs John Lineker
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Rivera
John Lineker
11%
89%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
12-7
Career record
Δ 15 pp
32-9
W1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rivera: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Lineker: 28 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Rivera
John Lineker
36
Sig strikes landed
60
108
Sig strikes attempted
132
38
Total strikes landed
78
0.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.80
-13s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
Blue corner
W2
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—