Prelims1
Featherweight
Clay Collard vs Tiago dos Santos e Silva
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Clay Collard
Tiago dos Santos e Silva
55%
45%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
22
Age
Δ 6y
28
14-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-8-2
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Collard: 84 sig / 1 TD ·
dos Santos e Silva: 52 sig / 1 TD
Clay Collard
Tiago dos Santos e Silva
46
Sig strikes landed
48
123
Sig strikes attempted
113
72
Total strikes landed
65
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Clay Collard
"Cassius"
14-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tiago dos Santos e Silva
"Trator"
20-8-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—