Prelims1
Lightweight
Ross Pearson vs Paul Felder
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Paul Felder
38%
62%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
20-17
Career record
Δ 17 pp
17-7
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pearson: 62 sig / 1 TD ·
Felder: 60 sig / 0 TD
Ross Pearson
Paul Felder
47
Sig strikes landed
50
108
Sig strikes attempted
128
50
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
51s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
20-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
Blue corner
L1
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
17-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—