Main
Women's Strawweight
Paige VanZant vs Alex Chambers
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paige VanZant
Alex Chambers
88%
12%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
21
Age
Δ 16y
37
9-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
6-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
VanZant: 73 sig / 3 TD ·
Chambers: 30 sig / 0 TD
Paige VanZant
Alex Chambers
53
Sig strikes landed
38
117
Sig strikes attempted
64
129
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
-0.10
298s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
73%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
9-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Chambers
"Astro Girl"
6-5
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—