Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Frank Mir
65%
35%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
37
Age
Δ 0y
36
35-24
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-11
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Mir: 24 sig / 1 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Frank Mir
29
Sig strikes landed
22
62
Sig strikes attempted
51
39
Total strikes landed
26
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
W2
Frank Mir
19-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—