🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs John Dodson
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
John Dodson
90%
10%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 22 pp
23-12
W8
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Johnson: 88 sig / 4 TD ·
Dodson: 58 sig / 1 TD
Demetrious Johnson
John Dodson
82
Sig strikes landed
40
150
Sig strikes attempted
109
122
Total strikes landed
55
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
246s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
Blue corner
W3
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—