Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Pica
Mauricio Alonso
76%
24%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nick Pica
Mauricio Alonso
44
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
104
56
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Pica
"The Silverback"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Blue corner
Mauricio Alonso
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
36