Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Ramirez
Josh Paiva
65%
35%
Why
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Matt Ramirez
Josh Paiva
37
Sig strikes landed
55
79
Sig strikes attempted
80
45
Total strikes landed
71
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
127s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Ramirez
"The Machine"
2-4
Career record
Height
65"
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
Josh Paiva
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
25