Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Terry
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
68%
32%
Why
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
James Terry
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
39
Sig strikes landed
35
82
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
James Terry
"Intensity"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
"Ta Danado"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34