Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Hester
DeMarco Villalona
85%
15%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Brandon Hester
DeMarco Villalona
39
Sig strikes landed
38
94
Sig strikes attempted
95
74
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brandon Hester
"The Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Blue corner
DeMarco Villalona
0-0
Career record
Height
69"