Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Carrasco
Joe Neal
83%
17%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carrasco: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Neal: 28 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Carrasco
Joe Neal
45
Sig strikes landed
44
97
Sig strikes attempted
96
82
Total strikes landed
58
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
172s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gabriel Carrasco
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Blue corner
Joe Neal
"Nine Lives"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
29