Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adam Piccolotti
Salvador Becerra
86%
14%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Piccolotti: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Becerra: 31 sig / 0 TD
Adam Piccolotti
Salvador Becerra
48
Sig strikes landed
39
107
Sig strikes attempted
96
88
Total strikes landed
41
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Adam Piccolotti
10-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlem…
—
Blue corner
Salvador Becerra
0-0
Career record
Height
69"