Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Wren
Josh Burns
96%
4%
Why
28
Age
Δ 9y
37
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wren: 86 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 36 sig / 0 TD
Justin Wren
Josh Burns
50
Sig strikes landed
36
109
Sig strikes attempted
87
73
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
183s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Justin Wren
"The Viking"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Josh Burns
"The Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
37