Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Patricky Freire
Saad Awad
79%
21%
Why
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Freire: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Awad: 38 sig / 0 TD
Patricky Freire
Saad Awad
39
Sig strikes landed
41
125
Sig strikes attempted
117
40
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
107s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Patricky Freire
"Pitbull"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Age
29
Blue corner
W1
Saad Awad
"Assassin"
21-9
Career record
Height
71"
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 136: Brooks vs. Jansen
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