Back to Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz
Women's Flyweight

Ilima Macfarlane vs Maria Rios

Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz ·Pechanga Resort & Casino
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ilima Macfarlane
Maria Rios
87% 13%

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Macfarlane: 62 sig / 0 TD · Rios: 44 sig / 2 TD
Ilima Macfarlane
Maria Rios
43
Sig strikes landed
42
95
Sig strikes attempted
94
99
Total strikes landed
66
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
197s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ilima Macfarlane

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Blue corner

Maria Rios

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Age
32