Back to Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz
Lightweight

Melvin Guillard vs Brandon Girtz

Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz ·Pechanga Resort & Casino
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Brandon Girtz
86% 14%
Why
32
Age
Δ 2y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guillard: 30 sig / 0 TD · Girtz: 32 sig / 6 TD
Melvin Guillard
Brandon Girtz
46
Sig strikes landed
40
112
Sig strikes attempted
106
61
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Melvin Guillard

"The Young Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Brandon Girtz

"Cold Roll"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Age
31