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Prelims1 Welterweight

Keita Nakamura vs Li Jingliang

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson ·Saitama Super Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Keita Nakamura
Li Jingliang
81% 19%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 4y
28
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Nakamura: 40 sig / 0 TD · Jingliang: 79 sig / 1 TD
Keita Nakamura
Li Jingliang
37
Sig strikes landed
38
83
Sig strikes attempted
100
48
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
94s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Keita Nakamura

"K-Taro"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
Blue corner
W1

Li Jingliang

"The Leech"
20-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
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