Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Nikita Krylov
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
·SaskTel Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Nikita Krylov
29%
71%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
30
Age
Δ 7y
24
23-10-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
32-11
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rogerio de Lima: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Krylov: 21 sig / 0 TD
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Nikita Krylov
21
Sig strikes landed
22
29
Sig strikes attempted
38
31
Total strikes landed
28
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W2
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—