Prelims1
Bantamweight
Yves Jabouin vs Felipe Arantes
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
·SaskTel Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Yves Jabouin
Felipe Arantes
39%
61%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
36
Age
Δ 9y
28
20-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-11-1
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jabouin: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Arantes: 4 sig / 0 TD
Yves Jabouin
Felipe Arantes
31
Sig strikes landed
43
70
Sig strikes attempted
90
50
Total strikes landed
63
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yves Jabouin
"Tiger"
20-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L1
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
18-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
D
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—