Back to UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
Main Lightweight

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Tony Sims

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira ·SaskTel Centre
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Tony Sims
66% 34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
26
Age
Δ 3y
30
12-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
13-4
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aubin-Mercier: 3 sig / 6 TD · Sims: 23 sig / 0 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Tony Sims
20
Sig strikes landed
26
48
Sig strikes attempted
60
31
Total strikes landed
35
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

"The Canadian Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
W1

Tony Sims

13-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—