Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Erick Silva
79%
21%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
31-16
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-9
L1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Magny: 68 sig / 4 TD ·
Silva: 29 sig / 3 TD
Neil Magny
Erick Silva
37
Sig strikes landed
23
75
Sig strikes attempted
50
67
Total strikes landed
37
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
135s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
W2
Erick Silva
20-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—