Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
·SaskTel Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Charles Oliveira
42%
58%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
28-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
38-11
W6
Current streak
W4
12
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Holloway: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 5 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Charles Oliveira
62
Sig strikes landed
46
136
Sig strikes attempted
107
76
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
83s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W4
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—