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Frankie Saenz vs Sirwan Kakai

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Frankie Saenz
Sirwan Kakai
39% 61%
Why
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
14-7
Career record
Δ 6 pp
13-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Saenz: 80 sig / 1 TD · Kakai: 55 sig / 3 TD
Frankie Saenz
Sirwan Kakai
48
Sig strikes landed
50
119
Sig strikes attempted
120
69
Total strikes landed
65
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.1
4.6
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Frankie Saenz

14-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
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W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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Blue corner
W1

Sirwan Kakai

"Zohan"
13-5
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
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