Prelims1
Flyweight
Dustin Ortiz vs Willie Gates
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Willie Gates
71%
29%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 7"
72"
27
Age
Δ 2y
28
19-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ortiz: 92 sig / 4 TD ·
Gates: 13 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Ortiz
Willie Gates
34
Sig strikes landed
28
67
Sig strikes attempted
76
67
Total strikes landed
41
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
240s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Ortiz
19-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1
Willie Gates
13-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—