Main
Middleweight
Derek Brunson vs Sam Alvey
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Sam Alvey
60%
40%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
24-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
34-18-1
W2
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brunson: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvey: 4 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Sam Alvey
21
Sig strikes landed
25
59
Sig strikes attempted
58
41
Total strikes landed
31
1.4
Takedowns landed
-0.1
4.6
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
173s
Control time
-2s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
Blue corner
W3
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—