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Prelims1 Middleweight

Chris Camozzi vs Tom Watson

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Camozzi
Tom Watson
67% 33%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
24-14
Career record
Δ 0 pp
17-10
L5
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Camozzi: 87 sig / 3 TD · Watson: 82 sig / 1 TD
Chris Camozzi
Tom Watson
60
Sig strikes landed
58
140
Sig strikes attempted
122
76
Total strikes landed
74
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L5

Chris Camozzi

24-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
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L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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L UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
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L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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L UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
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Blue corner
L1

Tom Watson

"Kong"
17-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
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W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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L UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
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L UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
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