Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Evan Dunham
50%
50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
21-16
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-9-1
W1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pearson: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Dunham: 26 sig / 5 TD
Ross Pearson
Evan Dunham
62
Sig strikes landed
62
142
Sig strikes attempted
155
71
Total strikes landed
78
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
56s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
W1
Evan Dunham
19-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—