Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joe Duffy
Ivan Jorge
48%
52%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
27
Age
Δ 7y
35
17-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
28-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Duffy: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Jorge: 7 sig / 0 TD
Joe Duffy
Ivan Jorge
35
Sig strikes landed
30
86
Sig strikes attempted
63
45
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Duffy
"Irish"
17-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
Blue corner
W1
Ivan Jorge
"Batman"
28-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—