Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stevie Ray
Leonardo Mafra
76%
24%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
24-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ray: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Mafra: 23 sig / 0 TD
Stevie Ray
Leonardo Mafra
35
Sig strikes landed
29
72
Sig strikes attempted
61
56
Total strikes landed
39
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
213s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
24-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
W1
Leonardo Mafra
"Macarrao"
14-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—