Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paddy Holohan
Vaughan Lee
86%
14%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
13-2-1
Career record
Δ 33 pp
14-14-1
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holohan: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Lee: 27 sig / 0 TD
Paddy Holohan
Vaughan Lee
36
Sig strikes landed
21
74
Sig strikes attempted
39
63
Total strikes landed
33
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
283s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Paddy Holohan
"The Hooligan"
13-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
L1
Vaughan Lee
14-14-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—