Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Pawel Pawlak
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
23-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Edwards: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Pawlak: 24 sig / 0 TD
Leon Edwards
Pawel Pawlak
32
Sig strikes landed
12
61
Sig strikes attempted
40
45
Total strikes landed
32
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
W1
Pawel Pawlak
13-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—